San Francisco Area Employment - October 2011

Area Payrolls Expand at slower-than-average Rate

Total nonfarm employment for the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont Metropolitan Statistical Area stood at 1,909,300 in October 2011, an increase of 17,700, or 0.9 percent, over the year, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Nationally, there was 1.1-percent growth in nonfarm employment from October 2010 to October 2011. Richard J. Holden, the Bureau’s regional commissioner, noted that this was the third consecutive month of over-the-year increases in the San Francisco area following four months of losses. (See chart 1 and table 1. All data in this release are not seasonally adjusted; accordingly, over-the-year analysis is used throughout.)

The San Francisco metropolitan area is comprised of two metropolitan divisions—separately identifiable employment centers within the larger metropolitan area. The Oakland-Fremont-Hayward Metropolitan Division, which accounted for 49.8 percent of the area workforce, added 1,000 jobs from October a year ago. The San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City Metropolitan Division, with 50.2 percent of area employment, accounted for 94 percent of its job growth with the addition of 16,700 jobs over the year.

Industry employment

The professional and business services supersector added 11,000 jobs from October 2010 to October 2011 in the San Francisco metropolitan area. Job growth in this industry was stronger in the San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City division, which added jobs at a 4.6-percent pace, than in the Oakland-Fremont-Hayward division, which expanded by 1.1 percent. Nationwide, employment in professional and business services grew at a rate of 3.2 percent over the year. (See chart 2 and table 1.)

Locally, jobs in education and health services were up 7,100, or 2.8 percent, from the previous October. Of note, this industry was one of the few in the metropolitan area in which job gains were larger in the Oakland-Fremont-Hayward division than in the San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City division—4,800 versus 2,300.

Two other industries recorded employment advances of 1,000 or more from October a year ago: leisure and hospitality (3,700) and other services (1,900), with each experiencing rates of growth above their nationwide industry averages. While both divisions in the San Francisco metropolitan area added jobs in other services, only the San Francisco division experienced a gain of jobs in leisure and hospitality.

Three local industries lost more than 1,000 jobs from the previous October—financial activities (-2,200); trade, transportation, and utilities (-1,400); and government (-1,200). The rate of job loss in financial activities was greater in the San Francisco metropolitan area than the rest of the nation, while the reverse was true in the public sector. Employment in trade, transportation, and utilities fell by 0.4 percent locally, but grew by 1.3 percent nationwide. However, only the San Francisco division lost jobs in trade, transportation, and utilities, down 4,000 or 2.7 percent from the previous October, as the addition of jobs in the Oakland division, up 2,600 or 1.5 percent, was not large enough to offset this decline.

Employment in the 12 largest metropolitan areas

San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont was 1 of the nation’s 12 largest metropolitan statistical areas in October 2011. Ten of these areas experienced over-the-year job gains during the period, with four – Houston, Boston, Dallas, and Miami – registering rates of job growth above the 1.1-percent national average. Six other areas recorded annual growth rates ranging from 1.0 to 0.1 percent. Atlanta experienced the largest percentage decline in jobs, down 1.0 percent. (See chart 3 and table 2.)

Of the ten areas experiencing employment increases from the previous October, Houston added the largest number of jobs, 79,500, while two others, Dallas and Boston, expanded by more than 45,000. Five other areas added at least 15,000 jobs. In contrast, Atlanta lost 22,100 jobs and Philadelphia, 3,300, during this 12-month period.

Among the 12 metropolitan areas, professional and business services was a major source of job growth from October 2010 to October 2011. This supersector registered the largest over-the-year employment gain in nine areas – Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Houston, New York, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and Washington. In the three remaining areas of Detroit, Los Angeles, and Miami, professional and business services was the second largest job gainer during the 12-month period.

Government experienced the largest loss of jobs in seven areas – Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Detroit, Houston, New York, and Philadelphia. The decline in public sector jobs was largest in New York, down 29,200 from the previous October, followed by Philadelphia, down 11,500.

Technical Note

This release presents nonfarm payroll employment estimates from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program.

Definitions.  Employment data refer to persons on establishment payrolls who receive pay for any part of the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. Persons are counted at their place of work rather than at their place of residence; those appearing on more than one payroll are counted on each payroll. Industries are classified on the basis of their principal activity in accordance with the 2007 version of the North American Industry Classification System.

Method of estimation.  The employment data are estimated using a "link relative" technique in which a ratio (link relative) of current-month employment to that of the previous month is computed from a sample of establishments reporting for both months. The estimates of employment for the current month are obtained by multiplying the estimates for the previous month by these ratios. Small-domain models are used as the official estimators for the approximately 39 percent of CES published series which have insufficient sample for direct sample-based estimates.

Annual revisions.  Employment estimates are adjusted annually to a complete count of jobs, called benchmarks, derived principally from tax reports that are submitted by employers who are covered under state unemployment insurance (UI) laws. The benchmark information is used to adjust the monthly estimates between the new benchmark and the preceding one and also to establish the level of employment for the new benchmark month. Thus, the benchmarking process establishes the level of employment, and the sample is used to measure the month-to-month changes in the level for the subsequent months.

Reliability of the estimates.  The estimates presented in this release are based on sample survey, administrative data, and modeling and, thus, are subject to sampling and other types of errors. Sampling error is a measure of sampling variability—that is, variation that occurs by chance because a sample rather than the entire population is surveyed. Survey data also are subject to nonsampling errors, such as those which can be introduced into the data collection and processing operations. Estimates not directly derived from sample surveys are subject to additional errors resulting from the specific estimation processes used. The sums of individual items may not always equal the totals shown in the same tables because of rounding.

Employment estimates.  Measures of sampling error are available for state CES data at the total nonfarm and supersector level and for metropolitan area CES data. Information on recent benchmark revisions for states is available on the BLS Web site at www.bls.gov/sae.

Area definitions.  The substate area data published in this release reflect the standards and definitions established by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget dated December 1, 2009. A detailed list of the geographic definitions is available at www.bls.gov/lau/lausmsa.htm.

The San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, Calif. Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, San Francisco, and San Mateo Counties in California.

The Oakland-Fremont-Hayward, Calif. Metropolitan Division (MD) includes Alameda and Contra Costa Counties in California.

The San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, Calif. Metropolitan Division (MD) includes Marin, San Francisco, and San Mateo Counties in California.

Additional information

More complete information on the technical procedures used to develop these estimates and additional data appear in Employment and Earnings, which is available online at www.bls.gov/opub/ee/home.htm.
Industry employment data for states and metropolitan areas from the Current Employment Statistics  program are also available from the Internet at www.bls.gov/sae/.  
For personal assistance or further information on the Current Employment Statistics program, as well as other Bureau programs, contact the Western Information Office at 415-625-2270 from 9:00 a.m. to 11:30 a.m. and 1:30 p.m. to 4:00 p.m. PT.